Tim Bedford, Roger CookeCambridge University PressEdition: Illustrated, 4/30/2001EAN 9780521773201, ISBN10: 0521773202Hardcover, 414 pages, 24.4 x 17 x 2.3 cmLanguage: EnglishOriginally published in EnglishProbabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.Part I. Introduction1. Probabilistic risk analysisPart II. Theoretical Issues and Background2. What is uncertainty?3. Probabilistic methods4. Statistical inference5. Weibull analysisPart II. System Analysis and Quantification6. Fault and event trees7. Fault trees - analysis8. Dependent failures9. Reliability data bases10. Expert opinion11. Human reliability12. Software reliabilityPart IV. Uncertainty Modeling and Risk Measurement13. Decision theory14. Influence diagrams and belief nets15. Project risk management16. Probabilistic inversion17. Uncertainty analysis18. Risk measurement and regulationBibliographyIndex.'This is a valuable reference book ... devoid of unnecessary repetition of what has been written earlier by other authors. The book is fresh, neat and comprehensive. I highly recommend it.' Igor Kozine, Risk Decision and Policy
