Quantitative Risk Assessment: The Scientific Platform

JNC Academic Books Verified independent store

→

Terje AvenCambridge University Press, 3/3/2011EAN 9780521760577, ISBN10: 0521760577Hardcover, 224 pages, 25.4 x 18 x 1.5 cmLanguage: EnglishQuantitative risk assessments cannot eli minate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.Preface1. Introduction to risk management and risk assessments. Challenges2. Concepts and perspectives on risk3. Science and scientific requirements4. Introduction to case studies5. Risk assessment when the objective is accurate risk estimation6. Risk assessment when the objective is uncertainty descriptions7. Risk management and communication issues8. Towards a holistic approach to risk assessments9. ConclusionsAppendix A. Introduction to probability theory and statistical analysisAppendix B. TerminologyReferencesIndex. Show more