Return Distribution - A5

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Are stock returns normally distributed? This visual compares the theoretical normal distribution with actual U.S. stock market returns over the past decade. Outlined circles repres ent the bell curve implied by a normal distribution calibrated on observed mean and volatility. Filled circles represent realized weekly returns, stacked within return bins. Blue circles fall within the range predicted by the normal distribution. Red circles correspond to outcomes that exceed theoretical expectations, revealing the presence of fat tails and the disproportionate role of extreme market events. Data & MethodWeekly S&P 500 returns, August 2015–August 2025 (522 weeks), from the Kenneth R. French Data Library. Returns binned at 0.5% intervals. Normal distribution fitted to observed mean and standard deviation. Product Specifications Format: A5 (148 × 210 mm)Orientation: PortraitPaper: 300 g/m² premium uncoated paperPrinting: High-resolution digital printFinish: MatteFrame: Not includedPackaging: Flat protective sleeveProduction: Printed in France (Paris) Show more